:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with three impulsive, low level M-class events observed
from Region 1476 (N10E63). The largest event was an M1/1n at
06/1747Z. Region 1476 has rotated further into view and is now
classified as a Fhi/beta-gamma sunspot group with an area of around
760 millionths. Three filament eruptions were also observed in the
past 24 hours, but none appear to have an earthward directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (07 - 09 May) as
Region 1476 continues to evolve and rotate further onto the visible
disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07
- 08 May) due to a solar sector boundary crossing and the possible
arrival of a CME, observed lifting off the solar disk on 05 May. A
slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for an
active period is expected on day three (09 May) as a corotating
interactive region, in front of a high speed solar wind stream, is
expected to arrive here at Earth.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 117
Predicted   07 May-09 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        06 May 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  007/008-007/008-009/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/45