:Product: 0507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Even though Region 1476 (N10E48) is the largest, 810
Millionths, and most magnetically complex, Fkc/beta-gamma; todays
only M-class event came from the sunspot cluster Region 1470
(S15W57) and Region 1471 (S19W50). This sunspot complex produced an
M1/1n x-ray event at 07/1431Z. Multiple discrete radio frequency
bursts were associated with this event, as well as a 240 sfu
Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. These characteristics, as well
as COR2 imagery from the STEREO A spacecraft suggest an Earth
directed CME. Initial analysis suggests only a weak disturbance of
the Earths magnetic field. Earlier in the day around 07/0400Z,
another CME was observed in STEREO A imagery but after analysis, it
was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 1476
continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity as it rotates
further onto the solar disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (08 - 10 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) as a
solar sector boundary crossing is expected, as well as possible
effects from a weak CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 05 May.
Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active levels are expected on
day two (09 May), as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves
into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels are expected on day three (10 May) as effect
from the CH HSS continue with the possible arrival of todays CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 122
Predicted   08 May-10 May  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        07 May 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  007/007-009/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/45/40
Minor storm           01/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10