:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N09W46) remains
the largest and most active complex on the solar disk, but has also
shown signs of decay. Two CMEs were observed off the east limb
during the period, but neither appears to have a potential earthward
component.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low during the period. A slight chance for an M-class flare
exists and will likely remain so, until Region 1476 either rotates
off the west limb or exhibits further decay.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with intermittent active
periods observed during nighttime (North America) hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (15 May), with the
anticipated arrival of a CME observed on 12 May. Residual unsettled
conditions are possible on day 2 (16 May), before a full recovery to
mostly quiet conditions is forecast for day 3 (17 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 130
Predicted   15 May-17 May  130/130/128
90 Day Mean        14 May 114
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/012-008/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor storm           20/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01