:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476
(N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing
a few nominal C-class flares.  New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (16-18 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 129
Predicted   16 May-18 May  125/125/122
90 Day Mean        15 May 114
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  008/008-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01