:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only a few weak C-class flares
were observed from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180) and Region 1479
(N15W39).  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days 1 -
3 (20 - 22 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/0210Z and reached a
peak flux of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, ended at 18/1620Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (20 May).  Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (21 May).  Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on day 3 (22 May)
as a coronal hole high speed stream and the 18 May CME are expected
to become geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 131
Predicted   20 May-22 May  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        19 May 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  006/005-007/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/25
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10