:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred. Two new active Regions, 1491 (N23W29) and 1492 (S13E65)
were numbered today.  A few CMEs were observed during the period,
but all appear to be limb events and non-geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (26-28 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (26 May) due to a CME
from 22 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days 2-3 (27-28
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 117
Predicted   26 May-28 May  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        25 May 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  007/008-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10