:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  C-class flares were observed
from both Region 1493 (N14E49) and newly numbered Region 1498
(N07E69).  The largest flare was a C2/1F at 01/1710Z from Region
1498, a Cso type group with a beta magnetic configuration.  Region
1493 was the largest region on the disk, occupying 170 millionths
and classified as a Dho type group with a beta magnetic
configuration.  New Regions 1496 (N16E59)  and 1497 (S22E34) were
also numbered yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three
days (02-04 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.  A solar
sector boundary change, from positive to negative, was observed at
the ACE spacecraft between 01/01Z and 03Z.  Solar wind speed was
around 350 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at quiet levels on day 1 (2 June).  An increase to
unsettled to active levels is expected on days 2 and 3 (3-4 June)
with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  The
coronal hole high speed stream will also bring a slight chance for
isolated minor storm conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 129
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  004/005-009/010-013/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/35
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/30/50