:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1496 (N16E33)
produced an impulsive M3 flare at 03/1755Z.  The flare was
accompanied by a Tenflare (320 sfu) at 03/1753Z.  A Type II emission
(est 1077 km/s)  was also reported at 03/1759Z.  A CME was later
observed in LASCO C3 imagery departing the northeast limb at
03/1854Z.  Earlier in the day, C3 imagery showed a CME departing the
southeast limb at 03/1342Z associated with a filament eruption. 
Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of
the CMEs.  New Region 1499 (N16E50) was numbered today as a small
Dso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. All regions on
the disk were classified as simple alpha or beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(04-06 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. 
Although the solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
remained below 400 km/s for most of the period, the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remaind southward from
approximately 03/0400Z until about 02/1730Z, ranging from -5 nT to
as low as -15 nT.  The geomagnetic field responded with an active
period from 03/12-15Z and a minor storm period from 03/15-18Z. 
Conditions returned to active levels for the last period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels for days one and two (4-5 June) with
a chance for isolated minor storm periods.  Day three (6 June) is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels.  A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to be in a geoeffective position
throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 129
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  014/020-014/027-014/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/55