:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1499 (N15E17) produced the largest x-ray event of the period with a
C4/2f at 05/2059Z. New Region 1503 (N11W38) was numbered today and
is considered a Bxo-beta type spot group. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (06-08 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to continued effects from a favorably positioned coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 650 km/s to 750 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bt remained stable at about 8 nT. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between +6 and -7 nT but held steady at approximately
-5 nT for the last 2 hours of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with active periods likely on day one (06
June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected
on days two and three (07-08 June) as the CH HSS effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 139
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  014/018-011/015-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/40/30