:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504
(S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the
disk.  Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the
period.  The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a
C2 flare at 12/0315Z.  All three of these regions have shown signs
of growth.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  Minor
storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z.  This was
followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z.  Solar wind
observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from
11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT.  In addition,
the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on
the 11th.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13).  Quiet levels
are expected for 14-15 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 141
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  014/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  006/008-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05