:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S17W39) produced a
few C-class flares during the last part of the period. The largest
flare was a C3/Sf at 17/1740Z. Region 1504 fluctuated in area,
ending the period at about 820 millionths.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity ranged from active to major storm levels due to
CME effects. A magnetopause crossing was observed by the GOES 15
satellite from around 16/2200Z to 16/2300Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 16/1955Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu
at 16/2020Z and ended at 16/2255Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to decrease to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day 1 (18 June) and continue to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (19 June) as CME effects subside. On day 3
(20 June), a chance for unsettled activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 124
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/125/125
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  019/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  026/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  014/022-008/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20