:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1504 (S16W65) produced
a C1 flare at 19/1335Z which was the largest event of the period. 
New Region 1510 (S16E02) was numbered today and is a small bi-polar
group.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 20-22 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 110
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  100/090/090
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05