:Product: 0627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 1512 (S15E11) and 1513
(S15E58) each produced low-level C-class flares as well as
occasional optical subflares. Region 1512 showed spot and penumbral
growth in its intermediate portion along with an increase in
magnetic complexity and was classified as a Dki/beta-gamma. Region
1513 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cso/beta. New Regions 1514 (S16E55) and 1515
(S16E70) were numbered and were classified as a Bxo/beta and
Cso/beta, respectively. Region 1515 produced occasional optical
subflares during the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (28 - 30 June) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled to active periods
detected at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 June). Field activity is expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (29 June) with a
chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). A further increase to unsettled to active levels is
expected on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due
to CH HSS effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 106
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  006/007-009/010-015/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/40