:Product: 0628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along
with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration
C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count
and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512
(S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but
showed little change during the period. This region produced
occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (29 June - 01 July) with a chance for another
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with
a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels during days 2 - 3 (30 June - 01 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 120
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  009/010-015/018-013/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/35