:Product: 0909RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Sep 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S13W53 - Eai/beta-gamma) produced two low-level C-class flares. It showed little change during the period and retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Newly-numbered Region 1568 (S12W29 - Dso/beta-gamma) emerged early in the period and rapidly developed into a D-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. It produced a single low-level C-class flare. There was no Earth-directed CME activity during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low during days 1 - 3 (10 - 12 September) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 3 (10 - 12 September) with a chance for unsettled levels and a slight chance for active levels on day 3 due to the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Sep 123 Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 124 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/25 Minor storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/20