:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 10 2325 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
1564 (S12W69) produced an M1 flare at 09/2236Z.  Regions 1564 and
1567 (N16E14) produced occasional C-class flares.  A filament
eruption was observed in SDO 304 imagery at approximately 1000Z from
the southwest quadrant.  An associated CME was observed over the
south pole and had an estimated plane of sky speed of 420 km/s. 
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective at this time, pending
further analysis. Newly numbered Region 1569 (S11E65) rotated onto
the disk as an A-type Hax  spot group, although additional trailer
spots appeared to be rotating into view.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the next three days
(11-13 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
at about 1300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels with a chance for unsettled levels
during the next three days (11-13 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    20/20/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 111
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  007/005-007/007-007/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05