:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
event of the period was a long duration B9 x-ray event at 22/2010Z
from an area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb near
S15.  New Region 1577 (N08E43) emerged on the disk as a stable,
4-spot bipolar group.  Region 1575 (N08E24) increased in magnetic
complexity to a beta-gamma configuration.  The remainder of the disk
and limb was quiet and stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels all three days of the forecast period (23 -
25 September).  A slight chance for M-class activity exists for day
three as active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind velocity from about
500 km/s to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels all three days of the
forecast period (23 - 25 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 125
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  125/125/130
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-004/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01