:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 1582 (S12E68)
rotated onto the southeast limb and produced the only C-flare of the
period; a long duration C1 at 26/1240Z.  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 320 km/s to 450 km/s
while the total magnetic field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled
periods during the forecast period (27 - 29 September).  There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 139
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  006/005-005/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05