:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1585 (S20E12) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class events. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (07-09 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
remain at nominal levels, however energetic particle measurments by
the EPAM sensor,  indicate a CME is currently traveling towards
Earth.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on day one (07
October). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods is expected on days two and three (08-09
October) as the 05 October CME is forecasted to arrive.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 099
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  098/098/095
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  005/005-015/018-017/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/35
Minor storm           01/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/35