:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest flare of the
period, a C4 at 14/0230Z, occurred from a region just beyond the
northeast limb.  New flux emergence was observed in the northeast
quadrant and was numbered Region 1592 (N23E20).  An asymmetric halo
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/0048Z. 
Correlation with STEREO B EUVI and COR2 imagery determined it was a
backside event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare during the forecast
period (15-17 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  An
isolated minor storm period was observed during the 14/0000-0300Z
period.  Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, declined
from approximately 590 km/s to 490 km/s while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on
day 1 (15 October) as effects from the coronal hole high speed
stream wane.  On days 2-3 (16-17 October), quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 132
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  028/052
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  011/012-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/15