:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar Activity was low.  Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb.   Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk.  Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near +/-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October).  Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 141
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  006/005-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10