:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 1598 (S10E60)
produced an M5/1f event at 22/1851Z.  Region 1598 is the most
threatening region on the disk and appears to be a Beta magnetic
class.  However, the proximity of Region 1598 to the East limb has
made the magnetic classification uncertain.  Region 1596 (N07E20) is
also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but only
managed to produce a small C-class event.  The other regions on the
disk either remained stable or decayed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class flares, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class flare for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout
the day at approximately 375 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-2 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 156
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  150/150/150
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05