:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 1598 (S12E04), a
Dko/Beta-Delta spot group, remained the most magnetically complex
region, yet only produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1607Z.  The most
active region was an area of enhanced plage near S27W87, formerly
Region 1594, where three low-level C-class flares originated. 
Region 1596 (N08W35) showed signs of umbral separation, and new
Region 1600 (N09W14) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(27-29 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours.  Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained relatively
steady at 350 km/s.  The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained mostly positive, with minor deflections of +/-4 nT,
while the total field held steady at 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (27-29 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    20/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 131
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  135/130/115
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05