:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The only C class event, a long
duration C1 flare was observed at 28/0805Z. An active region around
the west limb appears to have been the source of the event and LASCO
C2/C3 indicate an associated CME occurred. Analysis of the CME via
LASCO and STEREO indicate that the transient should not affect
Earth. However, further analysis of the CME noted in the forecast
yesterday has determined that there were two separate events, both
from filament eruptions, and both with Earthward trajectories. A
new, but unnumbered region, is beginning to rotate around the
Southeast limb of the disk.  All regions currently on the disk were
unchanged or in decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for days one through three (29-31 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (29-30 October). Quiet
conditions are expected again on day three (31 October) until the
possible arrival of the CMEs from 27/28 October late in the period,
when an active period is expected at CME onset.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 117
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  006/005-006/005-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/35