:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1598 (S11W51)
produced a B8 flare at 0137Z.  A filament eruption occurred from
0640Z to 0855Z near S32E07 with a heliographic extent of 24 degrees.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for low level activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (31 October), increasing to a
chance for active levels with the arrival of the 27 and 28 October
CMEs late in the day.  Unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm levels are expected on day 2 (1 November) from CME effects. 
On day 3 (2 November) conditions are expected to decline to quiet to
unsettled with a chance for active as CME effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 106
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov  105/100/095
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/012-015/020-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/45/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/60/25