:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1596 (N06, L=152) and
1598 (S11W65) both produced C1 flares at 31/0507Z and 31/1139Z
respectively.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed during the reporting period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A sudden
impulse of 13 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
31/1539Z due to the arrival of a CME. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
levels on day one (01 November) due to continued CME effects.  Quiet
to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions are
expected on days 2 and 3 (02 - 03 November) as effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 104
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov  105/100/095
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  014/020-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/20