:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
05/2134Z. Total IMF reached 8.2 nT at 06/2031Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.8 nT at 06/1150Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 099
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov   003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05