:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 07/1516Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/0031Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12.6 nT at 07/0039Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day 1 (08 Nov). Days two and
three (09 Nov, 10 Nov) should be at mostly quiet levels.

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 102
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  007/007-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05