:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0223Z from Region 1611 (N12E66). The M1 event was associated with a
CME off the east limb (not expected to be geoeffective) and a type II
radio sweep. A backsided, full-halo CME was observed later in the day
(first entering the C2 field of view at 08/1112Z); Stereo imagery
indicated that old Region 1598 was the source. There are currently 6
numbered sunspot regions on the disk
including two newly numbered groups: Region 1611 (N12E66) and 1612
(N06E71).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and
three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at
07/2122Z, consistent with a coronal hole high speed stream. Total IMF
reached 5.3 nT at 08/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -2.9 nT at 08/1953Z. Solar wind velocity was steadily decreasing
during the latter part of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 104
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 105/110/115
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  004/005-007/007-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10