:Product: 1118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0407Z from Region 1615 (N07W34).  Consolidation and moderate growth
was observed in Region 1619 (N10E03) which occasionally displayed
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov) with a
chance for isolated moderate activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at ACE reached 451 km/s at 18/1301Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2028Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz remained between +/- 4 nT during
the period. A new coronal hole was identified in the southern hemisphere
near center disk.  Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak of 1512 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21
Nov) with the exception of a possible unsettled period late on 19 Nov or
early on 20 Nov with the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 141
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  006/006-007/007-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05