:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/2116Z from Region 1618 (N08W13). Although this region retains weak
beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it has experienced
intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remain
fairly stable. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at
21/2303Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin the forecast period at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of
the 20 Nov CME midday on day one (23 Nov) when conditions are expected
to rise to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods.
Conditions have a chance for reaching major storm levels early on day
two (24 Nov) with the expected arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day three
(25 Nov) conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels
due to CME combined with high speed stream effects.

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 128
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  015/020-021/030-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/65/50