:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest flare was a C1 observed at 03/0036Z from a region that has
not yet rotated around the east limb. There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at
03/2032Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1959Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.5 nT at 03/2032Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 097
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  005/005-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05