:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at
04/1430Z. Total IMF reached 11.7 nT at 04/0005Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -10.9 nT at 04/0447Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 096
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  004/005-004/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05