:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest quadrant
from 06/0030Z to 06/0400Z. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
and C3 imagery. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, all of which are showing signs of decay.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
06/0024Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (07 Dec and 08
Dec) due to possible CME effects. A return to quiet levels is expected
on day three(09 Dec).


III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 097
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  006/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    25/25/05