:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/2121Z from Region 1621, which departed the west limb late on 6
December. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec) with a
chance for a C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at
08/1526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/1525Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1306Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 101
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05