:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1747Z from Region 1630 (N18E02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec) with a
chance for C-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
09/0910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0726Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1829Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec)
with a chance for unsettled levels during 10 - 11 Dec.

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 104
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  007/007-006/007-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05