:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
10/0558Z from Region 1630 (N19W11). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk. Two filament eruptions were observed off
the southeast limb early in the period. Both events have associated
CMEs; however neither event appears to be Earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at
10/0645Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1431Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.1 nT at 10/1651Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 104
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05