:Product: 1211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three
(12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 328 km/s at
10/2344Z. Total IMF reached 5.9 nT at 10/2146Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.9 nT at 10/2149Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Dec), and a return to quiet levels on day three (14 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 104
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  006/005-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05