:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1217Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (15 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at
14/1948Z. Total IMF reached 9.3 nT at 14/2004Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.7 nT at 14/1946Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (16 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Dec)
with a chance for active levels.

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 119
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  005/005-007/008-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/20