:Product: 1215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/1947Z from Region 1631 (N21W46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at
15/2035Z. Total IMF reached 11.5 nT at 15/0022Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.9 nT at 15/0038Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 15/0155Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16 Dec, 17
Dec, 18 Dec) with a chance for active periods on 17 December.

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 122
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  007/008-012/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/20/15