:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 16 2300 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray
event at 16/2103Z from Region 1631 (N20W60).  There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare for days one through three (17 - 19
December).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 463 km/s at
16/1937Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 16/0235Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.5 nT at 16/0827Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one through three (17 - 19
December) with a chance for active periods on 17 December.

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 120
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/016-011/012-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10