:Product: 1218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/1308Z from Region 1631 (N23W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels  with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and
three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 547 km/s at
18/0822Z. Total IMF reached 8.8 nT at 18/0213Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.6 nT at 17/2319Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 481 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 116
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05