:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed around 500 km/s.
Total IMF reached 5.3 nT at 19/1125Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -3.4 nT at 19/0811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 481 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 113
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05