:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 522 km/s at
20/2328Z. Total IMF reached 5.1 nT at 20/2150Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.3 nT at 20/2218Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for day one (22 Dec) and at quiet to unsettled
levels for days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 115
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  006/005-006/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10