:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0224Z from Region 1635 (N13W45). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight Chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Dec,
29 Dec, 30 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 326 km/s at
27/0200Z. Total IMF reached 5.1 nT at 26/2206Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.0 nT at 26/2227Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec)
due to effects from a weak coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet levels
are expected on day 3 (30 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 107
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05