:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A 10 degree filament, centered near N08E20, was observed erupting
in H-alpha imagery beginning at 27/1939 UTC.  STEREO-A COR2 imagery
showed an associated faint CME beginning at 27/2309 UTC with the
majority of the ejecta directed north of the ecliptic.  We are
currently waiting on further imagery to determine possible
geoeffectiveness. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 314 km/s at
28/0506Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 28/1254Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 28/1804Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 106
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05