:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1933Z from Region 1638 (N12E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare for days 1-3 (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01
Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
29/0722Z. Total IMF reached 6.7 nT at 29/0318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.9 nT at 29/0319Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days 1-2 (30 Dec, 31 Dec).  Quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an isolated active period is expected on
day 3 (01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 104
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  005/005-005/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20