:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01
Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
30/2035Z. Total IMF reached 11.8 nT at 30/0720Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -10.2 nT at 30/1338Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be quiet on day 1 (31 Dec).  Quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for active periods are expected on days 2-3 (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 107
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  005/005-006/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/20