:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Feb 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1051Z from Region 1678 (N10W40). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at 19/1610Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/1358Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (22 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb). III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 112 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 115 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 011/012-012/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 15/40/20