:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1511Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar,
04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
693 km/s at 02/0509Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0735Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2248Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3800 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Mar,
04 Mar, 05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 111
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 111/109/108
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  023/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  009/010-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/40